Snapshot - 31 December 2025
Gas softened on the prompt despite a tighter morning balance. Norwegian exports recovered with nominations near 334 mcm per day as Troll eased, UKCS receipts were firm and LNG send-out stayed strong on a busy Atlantic slate. Pan-European storage is in the low-60s per cent after steady withdrawals. Day-ahead NBP was near 74.75 p/th and the curve stayed range-bound as January models turned slightly milder but still below seasonal norms.
Power was choppy but broadly lower late. UK day-ahead baseload settled around £81.50/MWh as wind rebuilt into the late blocks. Interconnectors were broadly neutral and nuclear output stable, with small outages keeping some peak resilience. Stronger wind into the weekend should cap cash prices and reduce CCGT burn, with colder risk still present into early January.
Oil was steady to softer with Brent near $62/bbl on surplus signals and year-end positioning. EU carbon held in the high-€80s/t, keeping a cost floor under forward power even as gas sets near-term direction. API2 Cal-26 sat in the mid-$90s/t and JKM stayed near the high-$9s/MMBtu, close to European parity.
Near-term direction remains weather-led. The main watchpoints are wind volatility, Norwegian reliability and the pace of withdrawals as January progresses, with LNG arrivals the key buffer against brief cold shocks.
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