Snapshot - 30 December 2025
Cold revisions lifted UK and continental gas and power, with the move concentrated at the front of the curve. UK temperatures are now forecast to average about 3.6 degrees below seasonal norms into early January, tightening short-term margins and pushing Week-Ahead UK baseload up £11.55/MWh to £90.48/MWh. Lean wind early in the week amplified the response, leaving prices sensitive to daily forecast changes.
Underlying fundamentals remain orderly. Norwegian pipeline nominations have recovered toward the low-330 mcm per day range, LNG send-out is steady, and European storage sits in the low-seventies per cent after faster withdrawals during the recent cold snap. The balance points to a well supplied system with temporary weather-driven tightness rather than structural scarcity.
Carbon continues to provide background support. EUAs remain firm into the year-end auction pause and UKAs are holding value, helping underpin forward power even as oil stays weak on oversupply concerns. Near-term direction is likely to remain driven by weather realisations and wind volatility, with any sustained premium requiring a prolonged cold spell or a material supply disruption.
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