Snapshot - 29 December 2025
Prices firmed into year end on thin liquidity, weaker early-January wind forecasts and steady geopolitical focus. Gains were concentrated at the front of UK and continental curves. Q1 26 UK baseload added around £0.6/MWh. Fundamentals remain balanced. Norwegian pipeline flows have normalised and LNG availability is strong, limiting follow-through despite colder continental weather and headline risk.
Prompt and near-curve NBP and TTF edged higher before fading late on Russia-Ukraine headlines. Short-dated support came from below-normal temperatures across parts of north west Europe and a softer wind outlook, lifting gas-for-power. System cover remains comfortable on steady Norwegian nominations and healthy regas, which continues to cap moves. Into January, the market is watching demand resilience versus supply flex. Asia’s pull is still modest, though China’s December LNG intake is set to rise slightly year on year as buyers retain term cargoes, a marginal tightening factor but not yet enough to disrupt Europe’s balance under seasonal weather.
UK power tracked gas early, then diverged as tight continental conditions and interconnector dynamics lifted peaks while strong forward coverage contained further-dated gains. France is the focal point, with demand reaching the highest level since February and another peak expected midweek. Cold conditions are projected to persist into mid January. That increases the chance of firmer cross-border support for GB, particularly if wind underperforms. Q1 26 UK baseload ended modestly higher, while Summer 26 and beyond were little changed, consistent with a structurally well supplied market that remains sensitive to short heating bursts and renewable volatility.
Crude was mixed. Oversupply concerns and logistics frictions kept time spreads soft despite episodic risk support. In products, Russia extended temporary restrictions on gasoline exports through February and maintained curbs for non-producers on diesel and marine fuel, which can distort regional availability and widen intra-European differentials during cold spells. LNG and freight remained active. European receipts stayed high for the season and China’s December intake is expected to edge higher, signalling continued utilisation of term supply in a softer spot environment and supporting resilient Atlantic-to-Europe flows.
Other developments included the French demand spike tightening day-ahead pricing and lifting coal and gas generation, continued Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure with intermittent logistics implications, Russia’s extension of fuel export limits shaping product arbitrage, and China’s modest LNG import uplift which has not yet altered Europe’s winter balance.
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