Snapshot - 24 December 2025
European gas and power were steady to slightly firmer into the holiday period. Comfortable physical supply and a run of LNG arrivals kept the gas system well balanced, while carbon strength supported power despite only modest renewables. Liquidity thinned as desks wound down for Christmas, limiting follow-through on intraday moves. The near curve stayed range bound, with forward power tracking carbon and gas more than weather alone.
NBP held a narrow range with modest gains in selected seasons. The UK system ran long on robust Norwegian and UKCS inflows and active LNG send-out. Two cargoes were due at Milford Haven, including an Angolan arrival and a US loading, reinforcing Atlantic supply diversity. Prompt pricing reflected stable demand and benign temperatures, with storage still comfortable for the time of year. Into year end, focus is on short trading windows and any late maintenance notifications, but the baseline remains continued range trading.
UK power edged higher as carbon lifted marginal thermal costs. Renewables steadied versus earlier in the week but remained below last week’s peaks, limiting downside in prompt pricing. Forward power followed carbon and gas rather than weather alone. With renewables expected to stay variable over the festive period, short-term moves are likely to reflect carbon direction, inter-day wind changes and interconnector flows rather than a clear shift in fundamentals.
Elsewhere, Brent and WTI were mid-range with flat time spreads and subdued product markets. Carbon extended gains, with EUAs at their strongest levels in several years and providing a floor for power. UK carbon tracked the move in thin trade. Into early January, attention will turn to auction schedules and any first-week weather surprises that alter residual load expectations.
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