Snapshot - 23 December 2025
A quiet session saw carbon firmer while gas softened and power was mixed. UKAs ended almost £1 higher on thinning pre-holiday liquidity, while prompt power eased on stronger late-week wind and gas corrected lower on comfortable supply. Geopolitics remains a watchpoint after strikes on Odessa, with Ukrainian imports likely to stay elevated even as broader European physical balances look secure.
NBP edged down as steady Norwegian supply and stronger LNG send-out outweighed colder weather support. Gassco flows to the UK were broadly stable despite a small Åsgard cut, and nine LNG vessels were signalling UK regas slots. Send-out around 69 mcm met roughly a third of forecast demand, with LNG inventories above last year’s level. Into late December the balance remains comfortable, but risks are two-sided. A sharper cold snap would lift CCGT burn and storage withdrawals, while any Norwegian or regas disruption would add premium. If wind holds up and temperatures normalise into New Year, the prompt should stay anchored.
Power slipped modestly with gas, though losses were checked during brief low-wind periods that raised thermal load factors. Forward power tracked gas only partially as carbon strength added support, keeping clean sparks comparatively resilient. Higher wind later this week should contain day-ahead prices, before colder conditions into the final week of December lift demand and increase reliance on CCGT. Interconnector dynamics remain secondary, but margins could tighten briefly if wind underperforms during the colder window.
Oil drifted lower as supply remains ample and Russian export discounts widened under sanctions. Urals traded in the mid-$30s against Brent in the low-$60s, reinforcing a soft crude complex into year end. Carbon was the clear outperformer. UKAs gained around £0.95 on thin liquidity and positioning, while EUAs were stable to firmer as auction volumes ease into the year-end pause. A narrower EUA–UKA spread continues to temper downside risk in UK power further along the curve.
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