Snapshot - 22 December 2025
European gas and power firmed through Monday as confidence grew in a colder spell over Christmas and into early January. Thin liquidity ahead of the holidays amplified moves on weather updates. Despite the firmer tone, fundamentals remain comfortable. Norwegian pipeline supply stayed high and LNG receipts into Europe were brisk, preserving system flexibility as heating demand builds. Carbon added support, with EUAs trading strongly into the year-end auction pause and UKAs holding firm on improving sentiment around potential linkage in 2026. Geopolitical headlines created intraday noise without shifting the near-term balance.
Gas at NBP and TTF rose on colder short-range forecasts and a further downward revision to wind. The market priced a heavier call on storage and gas-for-power through the holiday period. Aggregate EU inventories sit in the low-70s per cent, below last year and the five-year average, increasing sensitivity to a sustained cold spell. Supply cover remains strong. Norwegian nominations were close to full rates and LNG intake was robust on steady US feedgas and limited Asian pull. Upside risk remains weather-led unless an unplanned Norwegian outage or sharp LNG diversion materialises.
UK power followed gas higher on the near curve. Day-ahead baseload and peaks firmed as wind dipped and temperatures edged lower, lifting evening thermal call. Interconnector support and steady French nuclear availability helped cap volatility. Further along the curve, gains were more measured. Carbon strength kept clean costs elevated and supported longer-dated contracts, but soft industrial demand and expectations of a wind rebound in early January limited follow-through.
Elsewhere, crude was range-bound with flat to soft time spreads signalling ample prompt availability. Product cracks were mixed and weather-related shipping delays added localised noise only. Carbon remained the firmer cross-commodity signal, with EUAs supported by the auction pause and residual compliance buying, and UKAs buoyed by linkage expectations. Coal and FX were secondary to weather and carbon in power pricing.
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