Snapshot - 02 January 2026
Cold revisions beyond week one lifted UK and continental gas and power into year end, with thin liquidity amplifying small forecast changes. Week-Ahead UK baseload rose around £1.98/MWh to £91.99/MWh as below-normal temperatures and low-wind periods lifted gas-for-power and tightened prompt margins. Carbon continued to underpin forwards, with the UKA–EUA spread near minus £9.17/t and expected to narrow if linkage and CBAM discussions progress.
Gas firmed on a colder start to 2026, but the move was contained by solid physical cover. Norwegian nominations were broadly stable and LNG send-out remained healthy, keeping intraday pullbacks shallow even as storage withdrawals ran above early-December rates. The curve moved less beyond Q1 given a well-supplied Atlantic LNG backdrop and steady Norwegian flows, leaving prompt pricing most sensitive to day-to-day changes in wind and temperature.
Power tracked gas higher at the front, with peaks firmer where renewable output dipped. Interconnectors were supportive and thermal availability adequate, while continental nuclear and hydro helped soften demand spikes through the morning and evening ramps. Further out the curve, moves were modest and largely carbon-led, with clean sparks widening slightly at the prompt where gas drove the move and steadier further out on expectations that wind normalises through January.
Oil stayed range-bound on comfortable supply and soft product demand, with time spreads flat. Carbon remained the firmer leg, supporting power hedging and narrowing the UKA discount at the margin. Key watchpoints into early January are the persistence of the colder signal, wind realisations, and whether carbon strength holds after year-end positioning, with geopolitics a secondary but persistent risk factor.
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