Snapshot - 05 January 2026
Markets opened firmer on weather risk. The post-Christmas cold is forecast to persist, lifting UK Week-Ahead baseload by around £22.08/MWh day on day. EU storage withdrawals near 5.9 TWh per day underline tighter near-term balances, while Summer 26 NBP firmed about 1.2 p/th to around 66.89 p/th. LNG supply and broadly steady Norwegian flows continue to temper upside.
Gas strengthened on colder conditions and low wind in early January, increasing reliance on storage and short-haul flows. Norwegian nominations are broadly stable in the low-to-mid-330 mcm per day range and regas remains robust, supported by elevated US feedgas and multiple UK arrivals scheduled through January. The prompt remains sensitive to further wind downgrades or sharper heating demand.
Power tracked gas higher at the front, with the biggest move in week-ahead as residual load tightened and wind dipped. Interconnectors remain responsive, and higher French demand under the cold snap is lifting regional coupling at peaks. Day-ahead volatility is elevated while wind remains variable, with models still pointing to a milder Atlantic flow later next week.
Oil stayed range-bound on surplus signals. Carbon remained bid into the auction pause, with EUAs firm and UKAs grinding higher on colder burn and linkage sentiment, narrowing the UKA–EUA spread. One swing factor for gas is Russia’s constrained Arctic LNG 2 exports, which remain limited by ice-class shipping capacity.
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