Snapshot - 06 January 2026
Prices eased across European gas and UK power as forecasts turned milder and wind strengthened from midweek. The improvement in fundamentals outweighed geopolitical noise, with month-ahead UK baseload and gas curves marking lower risk premia. Storage withdrawals remain elevated but manageable, LNG availability is steady, and Norwegian flows are set to rise into the weekend, capping near-term upside.
Gas traded sideways before settling lower as models added 1–2°C to near-term temperatures and boosted wind expectations. Prompt tightness eased, with fewer hours of gas-for-power burn later in the week. Norwegian nominations are recovering after maintenance, while LNG supply stays robust amid muted Asian demand and high US feedgas. Winter contracts shed last week’s premium, leaving curves range bound on comfortable balances.
Power followed gas lower, with month-ahead leading declines after stronger wind forecasts and a brief temperature rebound. Interconnectors and French nuclear output remain stable, limiting scarcity premia. Gas-for-power demand should ease as wind recovers, though short wind lulls may still cause spikes. Carbon steadied, offering limited support to longer-dated power as the near curve stayed weather-led.
Oil hovered near recent lows. Softer Middle East differentials and Dubai’s shift into contango signalled ample supply, while OPEC+ caution continues ahead of its early 2026 review. Carbon was stable: EUAs held recent gains and UKAs steadied, keeping the UKA–EUA spread narrow.
This Snapshot offers a concise view of market trends. For comprehensive daily reports, strategic analysis and tailored advisory support, Lumley Consulting provides independent insight across gas, power and wider energy markets. Learn more about our premium subscriptions and consultancy services here.