Snapshot - 07 January 2026
Prices rebounded as colder weather risk returned for next week, reversing earlier softness from milder forecasts. Storage withdrawals remain heavy, averaging about 6.6 TWh per day, heightening sensitivity to temperature changes despite stable Norwegian and LNG supply. Carbon strength added support, lifting power more than gas as thermal generation increased.
Gas firmed along the curve as colder runs extended. Summer 26 closed at 64.47 p/th, while near-curve contracts reflected stronger heating demand. Attention is shifting early to summer injections after brisk January draws, with the carry into Q2 likely to widen if cold persists. Physical supply remains comfortable but further downgrades in temperature would tighten the balance quickly.
Power followed gas and carbon higher, widening dirty sparks. Lower wind lifted thermal dispatch needs, while interconnectors and nuclear output helped moderate peaks. System margins are adequate but sensitive to wind swings. A prolonged cold spell would sustain elevated gas-for-power burn, while a normalisation in weather would likely unwind recent gains.
Oil stayed mixed as surplus signals offset geopolitical risk. Carbon extended gains with auction volumes easing and compliance demand firm, supporting forward power.
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