Snapshot - 08 January 2026
Gas and power extended the week’s gradual uplift as revised EU storage data confirmed heavier holiday withdrawals, averaging about 7 TWh per day over the last ten days. Forecasts remain unstable between a quicker thaw and a more persistent cold spell, keeping risk premia focused on prompt and near-curve products. The week-ahead UK baseload settled at £90.48/MWh, up £3.02/MWh, supported by colder signals and firm carbon.
Gas firmed at the front as withdrawals outpaced seasonal norms even through the holiday slowdown, increasing sensitivity to further cold into mid-January. Norwegian flows remain steady and LNG cover is comfortable, but the draw pace has shifted attention to the summer injection window and is starting to add a modest premium further out. Intraday moves remained weather-led, with rallies fading when milder updates reappeared.
Power followed gas higher but with uneven moves by product. Lower wind near term tightened evening margins and lifted gas-for-power, while later runs pointing to partial wind recovery capped gains. Further out, UKA strength and linkage expectations in 2026 continued to support longer-dated clean spreads, keeping the curve resilient even when gas softened.
Oil stayed range-bound as OPEC supply held broadly flat in December and the group looks set to pause further hikes through end-March while a near-term surplus is absorbed. Carbon remained firm on the auction pause and residual compliance hedging, with colder risk providing additional support if residual load stays elevated.
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