Snapshot - 09 January 2026
Gas and power eased as updated model runs pointed to milder, windier conditions into next week, reversing part of the cold premium priced earlier in the week. The week-ahead UK baseload fell about 6 per cent as expected thermal generation eased, while liquidity remained thin and intraday swings were wide. UK carbon followed, with UKAs down £0.74/t to £68.17/t. Physical supply stayed comfortable, keeping the sell-off orderly rather than disorderly.
Gas softened at the front as the colder push looked shorter and less intense, while stronger wind reduced gas-for-power demand and eased peak tightness. Storage remains the swing variable after brisk early-January withdrawals, but the latest weather guidance implies a slower draw profile into mid-January. Norwegian nominations are steady and LNG send-out remains healthy, with robust Atlantic availability and moderate Asian pull limiting upside risk unless the weather turns colder again or a material supply disruption emerges.
Power tracked gas lower on the prompt, led by week-ahead baseload as wind revisions improved and demand expectations dipped. Evening peak tightness reduced and clean sparks compressed as UKAs slipped alongside gas. Further out the curve was more resilient, with carbon still providing a floor and nuclear availability broadly stable. The near-term bias remains weather-led, with volatility still driven by wind realisations rather than structural scarcity.
Oil stayed range-bound with physical indicators consistent with ample supply and soft differentials, leaving time spreads flat to slightly weak. Carbon eased as the weather impulse turned bearish, with EUAs drifting and the UKA–EUA spread little changed on the day. Policy headlines around UKA–EUA linkage remain a medium-term driver, but near-term pricing continues to be set by residual load and auction rhythm.
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