Snapshot - 30 March 2026
Wholesale energy markets opened higher on Monday, driven by a significant weekend escalation in the Middle East conflict. Houthi forces reportedly launched their first strikes on Israel, US forces struck targets inside Iran, and the risk to Strait of Hormuz shipping has increased. Prompt NBP gas pushed up around 3-4p/therm, with Apr-26 indicated near 140p/therm, while Brent crude broke above $116/bbl - its highest level since mid-2022.
The supply picture has tightened on multiple fronts. Cyclone Narelle disrupted LNG export facilities in Western Australia, compounding the loss of Qatari cargoes already taken offline by the Iran conflict. UK wind generation hit a record 23.9 GW over the weekend but is set to fall sharply through the week, pushing gas-for-power demand higher. Belgium's planned nuclear shutdown from Wednesday will remove 2 GW of capacity through the summer, increasing reliance on imports across north-west Europe.
Seasonal gas contracts firmed moderately this morning, with Sum-26 NBP near 139p/therm and Win-26 around 143-144p/therm. European gas storage sits at around 28 per cent, and the latest long-range forecasts point to a warmer-than-expected April - which, if it materialises, could soften demand and ease some of the supply-side pressure currently underpinning the curve.
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