Snapshot - 27 March 2026
Wholesale energy markets corrected sharply higher on Thursday after a four-day bearish streak, driven by below-average temperatures, weaker renewable output and ongoing geopolitical tensions in Iran and Ukraine. The NBP day-ahead settled above 136 p/th - up more than 5 per cent - while UK baseload power reached 113.50 £/MWh. Brent crude surged above $108 per barrel and carbon continued a strong weekly recovery, with EUAs climbing more than 12 per cent over the past week.
Overnight developments introduced a bearish tone heading into Friday. The US extended its deadline on Iran by a further ten days, while Tehran permitted ten tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as a goodwill gesture. Oil prices are retreating and tracking towards their steepest weekly decline in six months. Wind generation is forecast to improve over the weekend, which should ease prompt gas and power prices.
However, European gas storage at 28.45 per cent - the lowest for this time of year since 2022 - continues to keep a risk premium in near-curve contracts. Several unplanned UK nuclear outages are also limiting the downside for power. Near-season gas contracts remain elevated, with Summer-26 offered around 139 p/th and Winter-26 near 144 p/th. The market remains highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines, weather shifts and storage dynamics heading into the injection season.
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