Snapshot - 26 March 2026
European energy markets opened sharply higher on Thursday after overnight reports cast fresh doubt over Middle East peace talks, snapping a four-session losing streak on the prompt. NBP front month pushed towards 137 p/therm - up nearly 6 p/therm from Wednesday's close of around 132 p/therm - while UK baseload power was offered several pounds higher along the curve. Brent crude recovered back above $100/bbl and carbon markets also firmed. Wednesday's settlements had shown modest declines across gas, power, and carbon, but the overnight shift in geopolitical tone reversed those moves in full.
The underlying fundamentals heading into April remain bearish. The UK gas system is balanced, Norwegian supply is rising following the return of facilities from maintenance, and weather models now show milder conditions arriving from tomorrow with April broadly expected above seasonal norms. Wind generation is forecast to increase, easing gas-for-power demand. However, LNG send-out to European terminals fell sharply and March cargoes are tracking below year-ago levels for the first time in three months as Asian competition and the loss of Qatari production tighten the supply picture.
The key risk remains the Middle East. Conflicting signals - the US insisting Iran wants a deal, Tehran publicly rejecting that characterisation - are sustaining wide intraday swings and keeping volatility elevated. The approaching Norwegian maintenance season, the EU's decision to delay its Russian oil phase-out proposal, and the UK's move to authorise seizure of shadow fleet tankers are layering further geopolitical risk into the market. Seasonal gas contracts remain well above year-ago levels, and until there is meaningful progress on the diplomatic front, the war premium looks difficult to dislodge.
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