Snapshot - 25 March 2026
Energy markets sold off sharply on 25 March as prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the Middle East conflict gathered momentum. Reports of a US peace proposal to Iran sent NBP front-season gas contracts down 8 to 10 per cent on the week, with Sum-26 trading near 124 p/therm and Win-26 around 127 p/therm. UK baseload power followed, with the front month breaking below £100/MWh and day-ahead collapsing to £40.72/MWh as a surge in wind generation pushed renewables to 64 per cent of the GB mix.
The geopolitical picture remains uncertain. Iran has denied that any talks are taking place, and Israeli-Iranian airstrikes continued on Wednesday morning, keeping crude volatile around $104/bbl. Carbon bucked the broader sell-off, with EUAs rising to €71.22 per tonne and UK ETS reaching £38.91 per tonne on hopes that a ceasefire could lift industrial output.
The market is caught between de-escalation hopes and the reality that the conflict persists. European storage at around 28 per cent - well below last year - and the structural loss of Qatari LNG supply continue to keep a floor under gas prices. Near-term direction hinges on whether the 15-point plan gains traction, how wind performs through the week, and whether the storage deficit forces an earlier repricing of summer injection costs.
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