Snapshot - 24 March 2026
European energy markets swung sharply lower on 24 March as diplomatic signals around the Middle East conflict triggered a broad sell-off across the complex. NBP gas prices fell over 12 p/therm on the day-ahead, with the front-season Sum-26 contract dropping to around 139 p/therm. Brent crude lost nearly 11 per cent to settle just under $100/bbl. UK day-ahead power collapsed over £50/MWh as improved wind generation combined with the bearish geopolitical impulse to drag prompt prices down. Carbon was the exception, with EUAs firming to around EUR 69/tonne.
The sell-off was driven by Trump's social media post claiming a delay to US strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, though sentiment has since turned more cautious. Overnight Iranian strikes on Israel and Tehran's denial of any negotiations have reinjected uncertainty, and oil prices are recovering this morning. The near gas curve remains under pressure from mild weather, with UK demand running well below seasonal normal, but low European storage levels and approaching Norwegian maintenance keep a floor under deferred contracts.
The physical backdrop is broadly comfortable for the short-term. Norwegian flows are steady, LNG arrivals into north-west Europe are plentiful, and improving wind output is set to reduce residual load through the week. However, the geopolitical picture could shift rapidly, and any renewed escalation around the Strait of Hormuz would quickly reprice the front of the curve. Further out, Sum-27 and beyond edged higher, reflecting persistent structural supply concerns.
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