Snapshot - 23 March 2026
Energy markets opened sharply higher on Monday as the Middle East conflict escalated over the weekend. The US has issued a 48-hour ultimatum threatening strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, driving the NBP front month up over 6 per cent to around 158.80 p/therm and Brent crude higher above $112/bbl. A longer-term force majeure from QatarEnergy is expected following damage to the Ras Laffan LNG complex, with repair timelines of three to five years for two export trains. The EU has also responded by lowering its storage refilling target to 80 per cent for the injection season.
The physical picture is more comfortable than headline prices suggest. Norwegian flows to the UK have risen, with Langeled up sharply, and total LNG send-out across UK terminals is healthy at around 64 mcm/day. A surge in wind generation - set to more than double from 8 GW to over 19 GW by mid-week - is limiting gas-for-power demand and capping the upside in prompt power, where the UK baseload front month is up a more modest 2 per cent.
Carbon certificates firmed, with EUAs at €67.66/tonne and UKAs at £37.14/tonne, supported by political endorsement of the EU ETS and higher gas-fired generation. UK nuclear availability remains strained, with over 1.7 GW of unplanned outages, and European storage sits well below prior-year levels at under 29 per cent. The market's direction this week hinges heavily on the outcome of the US deadline on Iran - any military action against energy infrastructure would likely trigger a further repricing across the complex.
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