Snapshot - 20 March 2026
European wholesale energy markets extended their rally this week as the fallout from Iranian strikes on Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility reverberated across the complex. NBP gas settled around 153-154 p/therm, with front-season contracts posting their highest levels since February 2023. UK day-ahead baseload power surged past £137/MWh as low wind output forced heavy reliance on gas-fired generation. Brent crude held above $108/bbl and coal firmed sharply, while carbon markets whipsawed - EUAs dropping to around €64 before rebounding toward €68 on Friday morning amid signals of potential EU ETS reform.
The loss of approximately 17 per cent of Qatar's LNG export capacity - with recovery timelines of three to five years - has fundamentally shifted the supply outlook. Summer/winter gas spreads have turned positive for both 2026 and 2027 as the market reprices European storage refill risk. Norwegian pipeline flows are declining ahead of the April maintenance season, and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, keeping a significant geopolitical premium across crude, gas and LNG markets.
Near-term relief may come from improving wind forecasts for next week and demand easing below seasonal norms across northwest Europe. However, the UK nuclear fleet is losing capacity to both planned and unplanned outages, and Friday morning's renewed hostilities between Israel and Iran underscore that the geopolitical picture remains highly fluid heading into the weekend.
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