Snapshot - 19 March 2026
Energy markets surged overnight after Iran launched missile strikes on Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG complex in retaliation for attacks on Iran's South Pars gas field. Front-month NBP gas jumped to around 173 p/therm - up roughly 25 per cent from yesterday's settlement of 135.50 p/therm - with Summer 26 contracts hitting three-year highs. UK baseload power followed, with the front month trading near £130/MWh against yesterday's £113.75 settlement. Brent crude breached $115/bbl. The notable exception is carbon, where EUAs slipped to near eleven-month lows around €63.60/tonne.
The physical backdrop in the UK is manageable in the short term. LNG send-out is rising, the system opened long this morning, and wind is forecast to recover by the weekend. However, Norwegian flows to the UK are down sharply as maintenance continues and volumes are being redirected to France. EU gas storage stands at just under 29 per cent, well below comfortable levels heading into the injection season.
The critical question is the extent and duration of damage at Ras Laffan. Any prolonged disruption to the world's largest LNG export hub would tighten global supply balances materially, with knock-on effects for European storage refilling and summer gas pricing. Meanwhile, Iran's threat to target additional Gulf energy infrastructure keeps the risk premium elevated across the complex, and unplanned nuclear outages in the UK are adding further pressure to an already stretched power system.
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