Snapshot - 31 March 2026
UK wholesale energy markets opened lower on Tuesday as gas and power prices shed ground across the curve, partly unwinding the sharp gains accumulated through March on the back of the Iran conflict. Seasonal gas contracts fell between 2.50p/therm and 7.50p/therm, with Sum-26 NBP around 134.00p/therm and Win-26 at 136.50p/therm. UK baseload power followed suit, with Sum-26 at £102.00/MWh and Win-26 at £105.50/MWh. Oil remained elevated with Brent above $112/bbl amid ongoing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, though diplomatic signals offered some tentative hope of de-escalation.
The market's attention is shifting to the start of injection season tomorrow, with European gas storage closing winter at just 28 per cent - near the 2022 lows and well below recent years. The storage deficit will be a key structural driver through the summer months, placing a floor under prices regardless of near-term sentiment shifts. Norwegian supply remains healthy but faces an elevated maintenance schedule, while the startup of Golden Pass LNG provides a modest positive for Atlantic supply over the medium term.
On the UK power side, a strong renewable performance on Monday gave way to a weaker wind forecast for the rest of the week, and nuclear availability is set to deteriorate further with a fresh planned outage at Heysham from April. Carbon markets firmed on the week, with EUAs around €72/tonne and UKAs at £38/tonne, as the broader energy complex continues to reflect the geopolitical risk premium embedded since the escalation in Iran.
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