Snapshot - 30 January 2026
Gas and power extended gains as colder forecasts and depleted storage kept near-curve risk premia elevated. NBP front-month traded back above 100p/therm, while seasonal gas contracts rallied on concern EU inventories could fall toward record lows by late February. Power followed gas higher along the curve, though day-ahead was capped by recovering wind. Carbon moved against the complex, easing on profit-taking, while oil strengthened with Brent near $70.70/bbl on escalating US–Iran tensions.
Gas firmed at the front despite steadier wind and solid Norwegian flows near 342 mcm/day. EU storage fell to about 43 per cent and is now the dominant driver, with projections pointing to a possible trough near 14 per cent by end-February if cold persists. March and April led gains as traders rolled positions ahead of February expiry and priced late-winter cold risk, including potential stratospheric warming impacts. Summer-26 reached a year-to-date high as early-season draws sharpened focus on difficult injection economics. Strength in US Henry Hub at multi-decade highs reinforced Atlantic LNG pricing and competition for flexible cargoes.
Power tracked gas higher on the curve, with Summer-26 and Winter-26 both adding around £1.5 to £1.7/MWh. Day-ahead softened slightly as wind rebounded toward 13 GW, though higher system demand limited relief. Carbon weakness tempered upside, but revised French nuclear maintenance plans lent support to back-dated contracts and cross-Channel pricing.
Oil outperformed the energy complex on geopolitical risk, while carbon corrected lower as traders took profits after recent gains. The overall balance remains tight near term on storage and weather risk, with wind variability and late-winter cold uncertainty continuing to anchor premiums further along the curve.
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