Snapshot - 29 January 2026
Gas and power eased as near-curve risk premia unwound on improving wind forecasts and a recovery in US LNG feedgas. Prompt NBP and TTF softened as demand expectations fell, while UK day-ahead baseload dropped to £106.55/MWh, down about 7 per cent. Carbon followed lower, with UKAs easing to £66.76/t. Further out, seasonal contracts held firmer as attention shifted back to depleted European storage, now near 43.5 per cent, and the scale of the coming injection requirement. Oil diverged from the complex, with Brent pushing above $70/bbl on renewed US threats toward Iran.
Gas drifted lower at the front as system conditions loosened. UK demand is set to fall sharply on higher wind output, Norwegian flows have recovered after recent outages, and LNG send-out remains close to 100 mcm/day. US feedgas has rebounded to around 16.1 bcf/day as the cold snap eased, reducing fears of prolonged LNG disruption. Despite the correction, low storage keeps the market sensitive. Longer-dated gas firmed modestly as participants priced the need for a strong summer refill after heavy winter draws.
Power tracked gas lower on the prompt as wind lifted and reduced gas-for-power burn. Day-ahead baseload and peaks both fell sharply, while curve power was more resilient, supported by storage risk and the prospect of colder weather returning in early February. Seasonal contracts edged higher, reflecting lingering uncertainty around balancing conditions later in winter.
Oil strengthened on geopolitical risk, while carbon softened alongside gas and power as residual load expectations eased. The overall tone points to a looser near-term balance, but low storage and weather uncertainty continue to anchor risk further along the curve.
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