Snapshot - 28 January 2026
Gas and power prices softened as the market faded the US freeze narrative and weather models shifted back towards milder conditions across north-west Europe. Front-month NBP and TTF eased alongside a sharp pullback in Henry Hub after the US benchmark briefly touched $7/MMBtu. Strong UK wind output, accounting for more than half of generation, reduced residual thermal demand and pulled UK power lower on the prompt. EU storage sits near 45 per cent, around 11 percentage points below last year, which continues to underpin seasonal contracts even as near-term prices corrected.
Gas weakened through the session despite lingering uncertainty around US LNG feedgas. Norwegian flows remain robust near 339 mcm per day and a heavy LNG arrival schedule into the UK and north-west Europe is lifting send-out and improving system flexibility. Temperature forecasts for late January into early February have moved closer to seasonal norms, trimming demand expectations and compressing the near curve. Low storage levels keep the market fragile, however, with scope for renewed volatility if colder runs return or US export flows tighten again.
Power tracked gas lower at the front as wind surged to above 21 GW and displaced CCGT output. Day-ahead baseload eased with gas-for-power demand falling sharply, while curve power was more mixed and supported by reduced nuclear availability in the UK. Carbon softened alongside gas, compressing clean spark spreads and easing thermal margins, though forward contracts remain sensitive to any renewed tightening in fuel or weather.
Oil firmed modestly on the day but remains range-bound, with physical indicators pointing to ample supply. Carbon settled slightly lower on weaker residual load expectations, while policy developments, including the EU’s formal adoption of a Russian gas phase-out by 2027, continue to shape the medium-term backdrop. Overall, the near-term balance has loosened, but low storage and LNG dependency leave markets highly reactive to weather and global gas signals.
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