Snapshot - 27 January 2026
Prices reversed lower as milder demand forecasts and stronger wind offset lingering concern around US LNG disruption. The prompt gave back early gains, with NBP day-ahead settling near 101.30 p/therm and UK day-ahead baseload around £96.29/MWh, as National Gas pointed to demand well below seasonal norms. Carbon weakened alongside gas, with EUAs down over one per cent, while policy risk stayed in the background after the EU confirmed a full phase-out of Russian gas by late 2027.
Gas softened after a bullish open. US feedgas flows fell sharply during the deep freeze, lifting Henry Hub and briefly supporting European hubs, but UK fundamentals stayed loose. System demand is forecast around 275 mcm per day, well below seasonal, Norwegian flows are steady near 339 mcm per day despite Asgard issues, and LNG arrivals remain heavy. Further out the curve, seasonal contracts eased two to three per cent, with Summer 26 slipping below 72 p/therm as short-term demand risk was marked down.
Power tracked gas lower at the front but with intraday firmness as wind dropped sharply from recent highs. Gas-fired plant again set the margin, tightening evening peaks, though curve power was more resilient and February baseload held above £100/MWh. Carbon’s pullback reduced cost pressure on thermal generation, while forecasts for stronger wind through next week point to continued prompt volatility.
Oil stayed range-bound near $65.5/bbl on ample supply signals despite geopolitical noise, while carbon softened on weaker residual load expectations. Overall, fundamentals point to a looser near-term balance, with weather and LNG developments driving short-term swings and storage deficits maintaining sensitivity into February.
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