Snapshot - 26 January 2026
European gas and power opened the week firmer as the US deep freeze tightened global LNG balances and pushed risk premia back into the prompt. NBP day-ahead lifted above 108 p/therm and UK day-ahead baseload rose toward £97/MWh, while further-dated contracts eased slightly as the move remained front-end led. European storage has fallen to about 46 per cent, the lowest for this point in winter since 2022, reinforcing sensitivity to global supply shocks. Carbon drifted lower, with UKAs around £68/tonne, offering less support to the curve than earlier in January.
Gas strength was concentrated at the front. The US cold snap has driven Henry Hub to extreme levels and raised concerns over LNG availability, prompting European buyers to reprice prompt optionality. Norwegian flows remain broadly steady near 339 mcm per day despite some asset-level noise, and UK LNG send-out increased sharply on a busy arrival schedule. That physical cover limits follow-through beyond the near curve, where Summer 26 softened toward the mid-70s p/therm, but the pace of withdrawals keeps injection economics in focus.
Power followed gas higher at the prompt but diverged further out. Strong wind over the weekend, supplying more than half of GB generation, capped gas-for-power demand and limited day-ahead upside despite firmer fuels. Curve power was steadier, supported by carbon and adequate nuclear availability, including higher French output after recent reactor returns. The market remains sensitive to any cold incursions that coincide with weaker wind, but near-term system margins look manageable.
Oil firmed modestly on Middle East headlines but remains range-bound on comfortable supply, while carbon eased slightly in a broader risk-off tone. Overall, the snapshot is of a market pricing global gas tightness into the prompt, with storage deficits underpinning sentiment but physical flexibility still containing the move further out.
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