Snapshot - 23 January 2026
Gas corrected sharply as the market pared back the US LNG disruption premium and weather models shifted toward near-seasonal conditions into early February. NBP day-ahead fell 5.80 p/therm to 99.20 p/therm, with curve gas also easing as participants unwound risk after a volatile week. Power followed gas lower along the curve, though day-ahead baseload bucked the trend and rose to £97.00/MWh on firm demand. Carbon stabilised and edged higher, providing a modest floor, while oil drifted on soft fundamentals before recovering slightly on renewed Iran-related headlines.
Gas softened at the front as fears of material US LNG export losses eased and Atlantic optionality reasserted itself. Norwegian flows remained steady around 335 mcm per day and higher LNG send-out, led by South Hook, helped keep the UK system long. EU storage slipped further to just under 49 per cent, but revised temperature forecasts imply a more manageable draw rate. Further out the curve, Summer 26 and Winter 26 eased as peak demand expectations were pushed back, though the storage deficit continues to limit downside if colder risks return.
Power tracked gas lower on the curve, with Summer 26 and Winter 26 both easing, while strong wind output capped gas-for-power burn. Day-ahead strength reflected firmer demand rather than scarcity. Carbon support and broadly stable nuclear availability kept further-dated power relatively resilient, though prompt tightness could re-emerge quickly if wind weakens or temperatures turn colder again.
Oil remained range-bound near the mid-$60s per barrel, with ample supply weighing on structure despite intermittent geopolitical noise. Carbon firmed modestly, with both EUAs and UKAs posting gains as positions were rebuilt after recent losses. Overall, the snapshot is of a market stepping back from extreme risk pricing, but with storage deficits and weather uncertainty keeping volatility elevated.
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