Snapshot - 22 January 2026
Gas surged as unplanned Norwegian outages and a global cold-driven rally tightened the prompt. NBP day-ahead settled at 105.00 p/therm, up nearly 14 p/therm, after curtailments at Gullfaks and Kristin removed about 10 mcm per day. Curve gas followed sharply higher on storage anxiety, fund repositioning and stronger international benchmarks. Power was mixed. Day-ahead baseload eased to £88.42/MWh on strong wind, but front-month contracts lifted with gas and carbon. Carbon strengthened across both schemes, with UKAs up more than £3/t and EUAs around €2/t higher.
Gas firmed aggressively at the front. Norwegian flows slipped to about 332.5 mcm per day on outages, while EU storage fell to 48.36 per cent, reinforcing sensitivity to further cold. The UK system opened slightly short, though LNG cover remains healthy and arrivals are scheduled through early February. Further along the curve, gains reflected colder outlooks into early February, elevated withdrawals and a sharp move higher in US gas prices on freeze-off risk, which raises the prospect of tighter LNG availability. Summer contracts strengthened as refill risk moved further into focus.
Power diverged by tenor. Prompt prices softened as wind output stayed above seasonal norms and cut gas-for-power burn, while curve power tracked higher fuel and carbon costs. Nuclear constraints remain a background support, with Torness and Heysham outages limiting flexibility if wind underperforms. Carbon’s rally added to the floor under forward power despite the near-term easing.
Oil edged higher but stayed range-bound near $65/bbl as supply concerns were tempered by softer trade rhetoric from Washington. Carbon was the clearer signal, with gas-led residual load expectations lifting both EUAs and UKAs. Overall, the snapshot is of a market driven by supply shocks and global cold, with strong wind temporarily muting the power response but storage deficits keeping risk premia elevated.
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