Snapshot - 21 January 2026
Gas and power softened as improving wind output and a sharp correction in carbon outweighed lingering cold risk. UK day-ahead baseload fell about 6 per cent to £91.66/MWh, tracking weaker gas and a rebound in renewables, while EU carbon led losses with EUAs down more than €3/t to €84.96/t. The market remains alert to storage risk. EU inventories have slipped below 50 per cent for the first time this winter and sit around 11 percentage points below last year, keeping prompt sensitivity high despite the near-term easing.
Gas eased at the front as supply and renewables improved. NBP day-ahead settled at 91.25 p/therm, down 1.75 p/therm, with the UK system opening long. Norwegian flows dipped slightly to about 333 mcm per day on unplanned maintenance at Kristin, while LNG send-out also eased. Storage drawdowns remain the structural concern. Summer 26 retains a premium over Winter 26 as refill risk stays in focus, and a fresh cold spell late January could quickly reintroduce upside. A sharp surge in US gas prices on winter storm risk is a watchpoint for LNG flows, though near-term European supply remains adequate.
Power tracked gas lower. A strong rebound in wind to nearly 19 GW cut CCGT burn and eased prompt margins, offsetting still-elevated demand. Curve power also slipped, led by carbon’s sell-off rather than fuel. With UK wind expected to stay above seasonal norms over the coming days, residual load should remain contained unless the colder outlook materialises more forcefully.
Oil was slightly firmer with Brent near $64.9/bbl, but the broader signal remains one of comfortable supply. Carbon continued to unwind last week’s rally, with UKAs also lower, reflecting tariff-related macro uncertainty and milder February forecasts. Overall, the snapshot is of a market pausing after the recent surge, with storage levels and weather confidence still setting the direction of travel.
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