Snapshot - 02 February 2026
Gas and power reversed sharply lower as weather risk was repriced after models downgraded the severity of the February cold spell. The roll into Mar-26 accentuated the move, with NBP prompt down more than 10 p/therm on the session and UK day-ahead power marked materially lower on stronger wind. Carbon extended its correction, amplifying the downside in power, while oil softened as US–Iran signals pointed toward de-escalation. Despite the sell-off, EU storage at just over 41 per cent remains a key structural support further along the curve.
Gas weakened at the front as demand forecasts shifted closer to seasonal norms and the UK system opened long. Norwegian flows rose to the mid-340 mcm per day range, LNG send-out increased towards the mid-90s mcm per day, and a heavy arrival schedule reinforced near-term comfort. US Henry Hub collapsed back below $7/MMBtu as production rebounded quickly from freeze-offs, easing concerns over LNG export disruption. Further out, Summer-26 and Winter-26 fell in tandem with the prompt, but the positive summer-winter spread persists, reflecting ongoing anxiety over refill economics given depleted stocks in Germany and the Netherlands.
Power tracked gas lower on the prompt, led by a surge in wind which cut gas-for-power sharply and pulled UK day-ahead offers into the mid-£80s per MWh. Continental power followed the same pattern, with German and French contracts opening notably weaker. Seasonal UK power eased but was more resilient than gas, underpinned by nuclear availability constraints and the storage backdrop. Clean spark spreads compressed as both gas and carbon fell, reducing near-term thermal margins.
Oil drifted as geopolitical risk premia unwound, while carbon remained the main drag across energy markets. EUA and UKA prices slid to their lowest levels since late 2025, improving coal-to-gas switching economics and contributing to softer power pricing. The near-term tone is looser on weather and wind, but the low storage starting point keeps the market sensitive to any renewed cold or supply disruption later in the season.
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