Snapshot - 29 September 2026
Wholesale energy markets closed firmer on Monday, with UK gas and power both gaining ground on Middle East supply risk rather than anything weather-related. NBP day-ahead settled in the low 180s p/therm and the front-season Winter 26 contract added around 2.5 p/therm to sit in the mid 180s. Power moved further, with UK day-ahead baseload settling nearly £7/MWh higher and October baseload adding close to £5/MWh, as wind output dropped by more than eleven percentage points of the generation mix and gas-fired plant took up the slack. This morning the gas prompt has eased while the power curve has held firm.
The gas story remains one of supply risk against a comfortable physical position. Qatari LNG deliveries to Europe stay suspended into December and the US-Iran diplomatic track has stalled, but Norwegian maintenance is winding down rapidly into the start of October, Langeled flows to the UK have tripled overnight and a steady run of American cargoes is scheduled into northwest Europe. European storage remains the weak point at roughly 71 per cent full against a five-year norm nearer 87 per cent, with Germany and the Netherlands both under 60 per cent. The forward curve peaks in January and falls away sharply at the April season roll, which is where the market has concentrated its winter premium.
Elsewhere, crude held near multi-month highs with Brent in the mid $100s and up close to 5 per cent on the week, while coal firmed modestly. Carbon was the exception, with both European and UK allowances easing on the day, leaving the UK discount broadly intact. The near-term risk for UK power sits with wind, which is forecast strong through midweek before falling away sharply into the weekend just as the winter season begins.
This Snapshot offers a concise view of market trends. For comprehensive daily reports, strategic analysis and tailored advisory support, Lumley Consulting provides independent insight across gas, power and wider energy markets. Learn more about our premium subscriptions and consultancy services here.