Snapshot - 28 September 2026
UK gas and power fell sharply into Friday's close before reversing this morning. The move lower was driven by two things landing at once: Norwegian maintenance schedules showing a steep unwind of offline capacity through this week, and an Iranian offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Front-month and front-season gas both shed around 4 per cent, with the day-ahead contract down close to 6 per cent, while UK day-ahead baseload power fell by roughly a fifth. That direction has flipped since the weekend, with President Trump rejecting the Iranian proposal and the front of both curves reopening several per cent higher.
The physical picture is better than the price action suggests. Norwegian exit nominations have climbed back towards 260 mcm/day as maintenance returns to service, UK production is firm, the system opened long and a steady programme of LNG cargoes is arriving into north-west Europe. The constraint is storage rather than supply. European inventories have only just crossed 70 per cent and sit well below normal for late September, with German and UK stocks notably thin, and flat winter spreads are giving traders little reason to inject. Mild weather through midweek is deferring heating demand, with a cooler front arriving from Thursday.
Power is being steered almost entirely by wind this week. A renewable lull has lifted day-ahead prices across the UK and the continent for today, following a weekend that saw UK system prices trade negative through much of Sunday afternoon before spiking sharply before dawn this morning. Wind is forecast to recover strongly from midweek. Elsewhere, crude eased on Friday before rebounding on the Hormuz news, coal was flat, and carbon in both the EU and UK schemes barely moved.
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