Snapshot - 30 September 2026
British and European gas and power prices fell sharply on Tuesday as the supply picture improved on two fronts at once. The unplanned outage at Norway's Troll field ended after twelve days, Norwegian export nominations recovered strongly, and unseasonable warmth across north-west Europe kept heating demand out of the system. Day-ahead gas settled in the low 170s p/therm, down more than 7p, with the winter contracts shedding similar ground on the last days of their trading life. Continental hubs moved in step, with the Dutch and German benchmarks clearing just below €70/MWh.
Power fell further than gas on the prompt. Wind output more than doubled its share of the British generation stack while gas-fired generation halved, pushing day-ahead baseload down close to £20/MWh to the high £110s. Continental day-ahead markets fell harder still, dropping between €17 and €26/MWh. Forward power followed fuel costs lower across the winter months, though the size of the move tapered further out the curve, and reduced nuclear availability in Britain and France continues to limit how far the curve can fall.
The wider complex was softer, with crude down more than $2/bbl as Middle East exports recovered toward pre-war levels and a large US reserve release was flagged. Coal drifted lower and European carbon was broadly flat. The exception was UK carbon, which rallied close to 5 per cent and sharply narrowed its discount to the European scheme. This morning the direction has already reversed, with wind forecast to fall away sharply from Thursday and prompt power being indicated well above Wednesday's clear.
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