Snapshot - 28 November 2025
Gas and power eased into Thursday before stabilising as milder and windier forecasts across North West Europe unwound some early-week firmness. Supply cover remains comfortable with Norwegian nominations recovering toward capacity and strong transatlantic LNG flows into UK and continental terminals. EU storage sits in the high-seventies per cent, below last year but still ample for late November. Carbon was mixed, with EUAs edging higher while UKAs slipped, widening the EUA–UKA spread.
NBP and TTF traded softer for most of the session as models pointed to above-normal temperatures into early December and stronger GB wind. Norwegian pipeline exports improved toward the low-330 mcm/day area as Troll maintenance ended earlier than indicated, easing prompt risk. LNG availability stayed supportive, with healthy US feedgas and steady Atlantic loadings keeping send-out covered despite a modest pick-up in Asian demand.
Week-ahead and near-curve UK power drifted lower as higher wind and milder temperatures curbed gas-for-power requirements. Day-ahead volatility persisted around intraday wind ramps, but the near-term bias is for softer prompt pricing if the wind build materialises and interconnectors remain broadly available. Further along the curve, power followed gas only partially as UKA resilience and the wider EUA–UKA spread cushioned declines.
Oil traded sideways, with OPEC+ supply management and a looser 2026 balance path in focus. US gas firmed on early-season cold and normalised exchange trading, while Atlantic LNG freight stayed elevated on record US exports. Grid curtailment costs in GB remain a structural headwind in high-wind periods, tempering downside in shoulder-season power even when fundamentals look benign.
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