Snapshot - 01 December 2025
Gas and power extended last week’s decline as milder fundamentals and optimism around Russia-Ukraine talks trimmed risk premia. The steepest move was on Jan-26 NBP, down about 1.3 p/th, with markets exploring a scenario in which a prolonged ceasefire gradually normalises Russian LNG flows. Record US exports and busy UK berthing schedules into mid December kept the Atlantic basin well supplied and capped weather-led rallies. Storage cover remains adequate for early winter, though still below last year.
Prompt and near-curve gas softened as seasonal heating demand was offset by steady Norwegian flows, firm UKCS output and higher LNG send-out, limiting the call on storage. Europe continues to price a premium to North East Asia once freight is included, so US cargoes keep clearing into North-West Europe. On the curve, funds led selling and, in places, turned marginally net short as ceasefire talk and milder long-range forecasts removed some geopolitical premium.
UK prompt power firmed in tight, low-wind hours, then faded as wind recovered and French and Dutch imports capped peaks. Shape remains steep, with short lulls in wind quickly widening spreads. Baseload followed gas only partially along the curve, supported by firmer carbon and expectations of tighter CCGT availability at points in December, while network constraints during high-wind periods continue to add balancing costs.
Crude was subdued, with OPEC+ pausing planned 2026 increases and time spreads shallow. Coal held near $100/t and offered little direction. Carbon was firmer into month end, with EUAs near recent highs and UKAs resilient, widening the EUA–UKA spread and supporting UK clean sparks. Broader signals from US gas and LNG underline a constructive global supply backdrop unless weather and supply shocks align.
This Snapshot offers a concise view of market trends. For comprehensive daily reports, strategic analysis and tailored advisory support, Lumley Consulting provides independent insight across gas, power and wider energy markets. Learn more about our premium subscriptions and consultancy services here.