Snapshot - 27 November 2025
Gas and power eased from early-week highs as peace speculation and healthy supply offset the cold snap. Prices opened slightly firmer but stayed below Tuesday’s peak. The UK system started long despite demand well above seasonal norms, while European LNG arrivals and steady Norwegian flows underpinned comfort. Weather stays materially colder than normal into the weekend before trending milder through December. Carbon is steady in the low-€80s/t and oil remains subdued.
NBP front month slipped back as traders faded the weather rally and leaned into improving supply. TTF spot traded in the high-€20s to low-€30s/MWh, with UK prompt supported by higher space-heating load. UK demand was near 330 mcm, around 80–90 mcm above seasonal norms, yet the system opened roughly 14 mcm long. Storage withdrawals picked up mid-week, though EU inventories in the low-80s per cent remain within historic comfort. Norwegian nominations are rebuilding after maintenance and multiple US cargoes are scheduled into Milford Haven, Zeebrugge, Gate and Montoir.
UK day-ahead baseload eased to the low-£70s/MWh as wind recovered from mid-week lows, although gas-for-power demand is still elevated versus normal. Front-month baseload sits in the low-£80s/MWh, off earlier highs as fuel costs retraced. Continental power shows a similar pattern, with German and French spot still sensitive to wind and flows. Into December, above-normal temperatures are expected to curb heating demand and soften thermal burn once the cold spell passes.
Brent front month trades near $63/bbl and WTI around $59/bbl with a flat-to-weak 2026 curve that signals limited tightness. Atlantic LNG freight is firm on strong US loadings but European premia to Asia continue to attract cargoes. EUA Dec-25 holds in the low-€80s/t and UKA Dec-25 in the mid-£60s/t, keeping the spread wide but stable. ARA coal Cal-26 is near $100/t and FX is range bound, leaving cross-commodity signals broadly neutral.
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