Snapshot - 26 November 2025
Gas softened while power was volatile as milder forecasts and stronger wind outlooks trimmed demand expectations and recent cold-weather risk premia. Talk of a Ukraine peace framework weighed on the gas curve, while EU storage sits a little above 81 per cent, comfortably placed but still around nine points below last year, keeping weather sensitivity high.
Prompt NBP and TTF eased as ECM and EC46 runs nudged late-week temperatures higher and lifted wind expectations. UK day-ahead softened as the system moved from tight early balances to neutral by midday, with interconnectors absorbing length. Norwegian exports were steady near the low-330 mcm/day area and a run of Atlantic cargoes continued toward UK and continental terminals, underpinned by strong US feedgas.
Power mirrored gas at the front but with sharper intraday swings. A morning wind dip pushed day-ahead baseload into the low-£100s/MWh at tight hours before easing as wind recovered and imports from France and the Netherlands capped the evening ramp. Curve power was firmer than gas, with front-month and Q1 supported by higher carbon and tighter CCGT availability at Immingham and Didcot.
Crude traded in a narrow band ahead of OPEC+ discussions on 2026 capacity and quotas, with time spreads shallow and product cracks mixed. Carbon firmed despite weaker gas, with EUAs and UKAs both advancing and keeping the EUA–UKA spread wide for GB spark economics. Coal calendars sat just above $100/t, while elevated Atlantic LNG freight remains a modest headwind to delivered costs without yet disrupting Europe’s pull on US-weighted cargo flows.
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