Snapshot - 25 November 2025
Gas and power were mixed on Tuesday. TTF spot briefly slipped below €30/MWh while UK day-ahead power firmed on lower early-session wind and higher CCGT runs. Liquidity on the curve was thin and moves modest. The UK gas system opened short before balancing as LNG send-out rose into the high-70s mcm/day. Norwegian nominations held steady near the low-330s mcm/day and interconnectors were quiet. Weather drivers eased, with EC46 guiding temperatures mostly above seasonal norms into early December and wind generally stronger and choppy.
Prompt gas was softer to flat, with NBP day-ahead assessed near 78 p/th and TTF day-ahead around €30/MWh. Curve prices eased as traders faded last week’s cold snap and priced a warmer turn. Near-curve support was limited by strong LNG cover, muted Asian pull and elevated Atlantic freight that still leaves Europe the preferred destination for US volumes. Storage withdrawals continued but slowed, leaving inventories near 81 per cent. Short-term sensitivity remains centred on any Norwegian interruption or slippage in LNG schedules, though baseline supply looks secure.
UK day-ahead baseload rose to about £105/MWh, with the peak product firmer. Morning tightness reflected low wind and higher thermal output, with imports from France and the Netherlands helping cover the ramp. Intraday prices spiked during system tightening but eased once wind picked up. Curve power was mixed. Front-month held near the high-£70s/MWh and Q1 was little changed, with wind forecasts expected to run above seasonal norms into next week and temper thermal burn.
Brent edged up to around $63/bbl as supply-demand worries eased. API2 Cal-26 held just below $100/t. Carbon was rangebound, with EUAs around €80.6/t and UKAs near £58/t. The wide EUA–UKA spread continues to influence GB clean-spark economics, though short-dated power remains driven by wind and gas swings. Other developments included continued subdued Chinese LNG demand, India weighing financing options for non-sanctioned Russian crude, Germany planning flexible gas-plant auctions, Engie winning a large Indian battery tender and multiple US LNG arrivals across North West Europe.
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