Snapshot - 27 February 2026
European gas and power markets swung between weather-driven softness and geopolitical-driven firmness this week. Mild temperatures across northwest Europe - running 4 to 10°C above seasonal norms - suppressed heating demand and kept the UK system comfortably long, but US–Iran nuclear talks ending without a deal in Geneva on Wednesday evening triggered a sharp rebound in prompt prices. NBP day-ahead moved from around 73p/therm to roughly 77p/therm by Thursday morning, while UK baseload power recovered from the mid-£69s back above £73/MWh.
On the supply side, Norwegian flows dipped as Oseberg maintenance began, pulling Langeled volumes down by nearly 10 mcm/day. EU gas storage continued to draw, sitting at around 30 per cent full with a month of winter left, though the latest weather models flag a potential cold snap from early March that could accelerate late-season withdrawals. Brent crude edged above $71/bbl on the no-deal headlines, while EUA carbon eased to around €71/tonne amid ongoing political uncertainty over emissions scheme reform.
Forward curves firmed across gas and power as the market balanced loose near-term fundamentals against tighter medium-term risks including geopolitical disruption, pre-summer refilling needs, and significant UK nuclear outages. Strong LNG arrivals into northwest Europe and moderate Asian demand are capping the upside for now, but the balance of risks has shifted slightly bullish with the Iran situation unresolved and cooler weather potentially on the horizon.
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