Snapshot - 02 March 2026
Energy markets were dominated by the escalation in the Middle East over the weekend. Coordinated US and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered retaliatory action across the region, effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz and disrupting global LNG and oil shipping routes. By the afternoon, the situation had worsened with QatarEnergy halting LNG production at Ras Laffan following strikes on the terminal. NBP front-month gas surged from around 79 p/th to above 115 p/th, while UK baseload power rose from the low 70s to offer levels near £97/MWh. Brent crude jumped roughly 8 per cent to near $79/bbl.
Underlying fundamentals offered some ballast further along the curve. Temperatures across Europe are expected to remain above seasonal norms this week, UK system demand is running around 200 mcm/day, and US LNG feed gas had been at record levels before the conflict began. However, wind generation is forecast below normal for the next fortnight across northwest Europe, adding to gas-for-power demand at an already stressed point for the market. Multiple UK nuclear units remain offline, further tightening the power system.
Carbon markets continued to move in the opposite direction, with EUAs drifting below €70 per tonne on the back of bearish policy commentary from senior European figures calling for ETS reform. The key variables for the week ahead are the duration of the Strait of Hormuz closure, the timeline for any restart of Qatari LNG exports, and whether the conflict widens further or moves toward de-escalation.
This Snapshot offers a concise view of market trends. For comprehensive daily reports, strategic analysis and tailored advisory support, Lumley Consulting provides independent insight across gas, power and wider energy markets. Learn more about our premium subscriptions and consultancy services here.