Snapshot - 26 February 2026
UK wholesale gas and power prices softened at the front end on Wednesday as unseasonably mild temperatures suppressed demand well below seasonal averages. NBP day-ahead settled around 73p/therm, down roughly 2p, while UK baseload power fell close to £70/MWh. The system remains fundamentally comfortable, though a drop in Langeled flows to the UK following the early start of Oseberg maintenance and lower Dragon LNG send-out trimmed supply on the margin without materially tightening the balance.
The forward curve told a different story, with seasonal gas and power contracts firming modestly. Geopolitical risk premia edged higher as US–Iran nuclear talks resumed in Geneva, pushing Brent crude to around $71/barrel and lifting EUA carbon nearly €2 to above €72/tonne. UK carbon rose more gently to approximately £46/tonne. Storage across Europe has dipped to just over 30 per cent but is expected to see a slower draw as mild conditions persist into March.
Looking ahead, the key near-term risk is a forecast drop in wind output below seasonal norms through early March, which would increase reliance on gas-fired generation and could tighten prompt power margins. Nuclear constraints at Heysham and Hartlepool add to the sensitivity. For now, ample LNG arrivals and the benign weather outlook provide a degree of comfort, but any shift in the temperature or geopolitical picture could quickly reprice the prompt.
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