Snapshot - 23 February 2026
UK wholesale gas and power prices eased to start the week as milder weather forecasts and strong renewable generation offset lingering geopolitical risk. The NBP Summer 26 gas contract dropped around 1.2p/therm while UK seasonal baseload power fell by up to £2.25/MWh, led by Winter 26. Wind generation surged to nearly 45 per cent of the GB power mix on Friday, reducing gas-for-power demand and pulling prompt prices sharply lower. European gas storage sits at roughly 31 per cent full, with draws expected to moderate as temperatures trend above seasonal norms into March.
Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran remain in the background. Iranian military drills near the Strait of Hormuz and a significant US naval build-up continue to inject a risk premium, though fresh diplomatic talks have eased the most acute concerns. Brent crude held near $71.76 per barrel, with gains over the past week largely reflecting geopolitical positioning. Carbon markets bounced after weeks of selling, with EUAs rising to €73.78 per tonne, though prices remain well below the highs seen in January.
On the broader stage, the US Supreme Court struck down parts of the Trump administration's tariff programme, prompting an immediate move to raise the global rate to 15 per cent under alternative authorities. Norwegian gas supply was constrained by unplanned outages at Oseberg, Åsgard, and Ormen Lange, though flows to the UK have partially recovered. UK nuclear availability remains a concern, with multiple units offline across the Heysham, Hartlepool, and Torness stations. The coming week will be shaped by wind forecast accuracy, the pace of Norwegian supply recovery, and any further developments in Middle East diplomacy.
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