Snapshot - 24 February 2026
UK wholesale energy markets softened at the start of the week as mild weather and a sharp drop in carbon prices took the heat out of the prompt complex. NBP day-ahead gas settled at 76.65p/therm with front-month contracts easing to the mid-75s, while UK baseload power for the day ahead printed at around £78/MWh. EUA carbon fell over 3 per cent to €71.38 per tonne and UKAs dropped to £46.38 per tonne, reducing the cost of thermal generation across the board.
The physical backdrop remains comfortable. UK gas demand is tracking well below seasonal norms on above-average temperatures, LNG arrivals continue at a strong pace with February volumes set to beat last year, and European storage withdrawals have slowed markedly. Norwegian flows are steady ahead of planned maintenance at Nyhamna, which begins shortly and will remove nearly 20 mcm/day through to early April. Nuclear availability remains constrained, with over 2.5 GW of UK capacity offline.
Geopolitical risk continues to simmer in the background. US–Iran tensions persist despite tentative diplomatic signals, and President Trump's weekend announcement of a global tariff increase to 15 per cent has added another layer of uncertainty. Brent crude held relatively steady around $71.50 per barrel. The market tone is cautious but not alarmed – fundamentals are broadly supportive of current levels, though headline-driven volatility remains a clear risk on any escalation.
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