Snapshot - 20 February 2026
UK wholesale energy prices pulled back on Friday after a sharp geopolitical rally the previous day, which had driven gas and power prices around 6 per cent higher. Front-month UK gas eased to near 79 p/th and day-ahead power for Monday traded around £69/MWh, supported by a strong recovery in wind generation and gas demand running well below seasonal norms. Brent crude held near six-month highs around $71 per barrel.
The correction was driven by improving fundamentals: wind output climbed back above 15 GW, LNG send-out remained robust, and temperatures are forecast to stay mild through next week. However, supply-side risks persist, including the extended outage at Ormen Lange until 25 February and continued disruption at Oseberg. President Trump's 10 to 15-day window for Iranian nuclear talks offered some relief but the broader geopolitical backdrop remains supportive.
Carbon markets diverged from the energy complex, with UK ETS Dec-26 falling to £46.07 per tonne – down 26 per cent since early February – while European allowances also drifted lower. On the curve, near-dated gas and power offered prices were mixed, with front seasons holding modest gains on residual geopolitical support but the back end softening as traders took profit on Thursday's rally.
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