Snapshot - 19 February 2026
European energy markets swung sharply higher on Wednesday as US–Iran tensions escalated. Iran temporarily closed the Strait of Hormuz for naval exercises, and the US military buildup in the region is now described as the largest since 2003. NBP front-month gas rallied more than 5 p/therm to settle at 76.41 p/therm and has continued higher this morning, while Brent crude surged above $70/bbl. Seasonal gas and power contracts posted strong gains across the curve, with EUAs and UKAs also climbing on the day.
The physical picture, by contrast, remains comfortable. Mild weather is expected to persist through the rest of February, wind generation is forecast above seasonal norms in the near term, and LNG arrivals into north-west Europe are steady. Norwegian flows are slightly reduced by an unplanned outage at Ormen Lange, but overall supply adequacy is not under threat. EU storage levels, while lower than last year, remain within manageable ranges for the time of year.
Separately, Centrica reported a 40 per cent decline in annual profit, citing weak trading conditions and mild weather. The company paused its share buyback programme to focus on investments. On the geopolitical front, Russia–Ukraine talks ended without progress, while German policymakers signalled possible new measures to bolster gas supply security. The market's direction in the coming days will hinge almost entirely on whether US–Iran tensions de-escalate or worsen further.
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