Snapshot - 18 February 2026
UK wholesale energy markets continued to soften on Tuesday as weather forecasts pushed milder and windier conditions into the outlook for the second half of February. NBP day-ahead gas fell to 73.00 p/therm with further losses this morning, while seasonal contracts dropped to five-week lows. UK day-ahead baseload power eased below £75/MWh as renewables output increased and demand expectations dipped. Crude oil also slipped, with Brent settling around $67.40/bbl after constructive US–Iran diplomatic talks reduced geopolitical risk.
The bearish impulse is being driven by a significant shift in weather models, which now show temperatures across parts of Europe lifting well above seasonal norms next week and wind generation strengthening materially. This combination is expected to reduce gas-for-power burn and slow the pace of European storage withdrawals, easing concerns around end-of-winter inventory levels. LNG arrivals into the UK surged, adding further comfort to the physical supply picture despite an ongoing Norwegian pipeline outage.
Carbon provided a counterpoint, with both EUAs and UKAs posting modest gains after over a week of declines, though both remain significantly lower on a weekly basis. On the policy side, UK energy bills are expected to fall around 7 per cent from April following the government's decision to shift renewable certificate costs to general taxation. The market's near-term direction hinges on whether the milder weather forecasts verify – any colder revisions could quickly reignite prompt volatility.
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