Snapshot - 20 November 2025
Energy markets eased on Thursday as geopolitical noise and steady supply trimmed early-week risk premia. Reports of a possible framework for talks in the Russia-Ukraine war encouraged de-risking, while Norwegian nominations recovered and LNG send-out stayed high. The UK system ran comfortably long at times and storage draws remained measured. Price action stayed range bound. The prompt tightened briefly on colder signals before fading as wind recovered and interconnectors smoothed evening ramps. Carbon was mixed, with EUAs slipping on profit taking while UKAs held firmer and softened the fall in near-dated power.
Prompt and early-winter gas softened as the physical balance improved. Norwegian nominations rose by roughly 15 mcm day on day and UK linepack benefited from steady regas. Four to five Atlantic cargoes are signalling for North West Europe and US feedgas remains close to record highs, anchoring LNG supply. Storage withdrawals continued but slowed versus earlier in the week, consistent with a short cold trough rather than a structural demand shift. Further along the curve moves were small, with positioning light and traders reluctant to add premium while seaborne cover is strong and Asian demand subdued.
UK power followed gas lower, with the largest moves in peak hours that had priced tighter margins earlier in the week. Evening wind improved and imports from France and the Netherlands helped cap the ramp. Nuclear availability was steady and no significant HVDC deratings were reported. December and Q1 held value relative to gas as UKAs firmed and clean sparks narrowed only slightly. Direction into next week hinges on wind normalisation and whether the colder signal extends.
Crude drifted lower as de-escalation chatter outweighed geopolitics, with Brent near the low-$60s/bbl and time-spreads muted. Freight stayed elevated and refining margins were mixed, with diesel firmer than gasoline. Coal calendars hovered a little above $100/t. EUAs eased within their €79–82 corridor while UKAs held steadier, keeping the EUA-UKA spread wide and offering mild support to UK clean-spark economics. Other developments included US-drafted peace-framework headlines, Ukraine securing its first US LNG cargo via Lithuania, TotalEnergies cautioning on Europe’s reliance on US LNG, renewed tightness in German power on low wind, new Japanese offshore-wind support, Ofgem’s supplier-governance guidance and continued elevated Atlantic LNG freight.
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