Snapshot - 21 November 2025
European gas and power traded inside recent ranges on Thursday before a brief post-close sell-off on headlines suggesting Kyiv may work with Western partners on a draft peace framework. Fundamentals were little changed. Temperatures were revised slightly milder but still sit near 3–7°C, EU storage is about 81 per cent, and Norwegian supply plus strong LNG send-out keep winter cover comfortable, if thinner than last year. Carbon was mixed, with EUAs easing on profit taking while UKAs held steadier, softening the fall in near-dated power.
NBP and TTF eased as the temperature path nudged higher and supply stayed solid. Day-ahead softened despite a forecast wind dip, helped by stable Norwegian nominations, firm US feedgas and several Atlantic cargoes signalling into North West Europe. Storage withdrawals slowed, consistent with a short cold trough rather than a structural demand shift. Late-session diplomacy headlines triggered a quick risk-off move, trimming earlier near-curve gains.
UK power largely tracked gas but with weaker sparks into the close. Prompt and near-curve clean sparks fell as gas eased and wind forecasts improved for early next week. December baseload retained support after updated CCGT availability flagged tighter cover at Immingham and Didcot, reducing thermal headroom in evening peaks. A sharp day-on-day drop in wind earlier in the session had briefly lifted CCGT runs before the gas-led sell-off eroded premium.
Brent was broadly steady, with the curve still signalling comfortable supply and limited near-term disruption risk. EUAs slipped within November’s €79–82/t corridor while UKAs held, keeping the EUA–UKA spread wide but not decisive for direction. Freight and LNG signals remain benign for Europe, with Atlantic availability firm and UK cargo schedules into late November adequate, implying muted volatility unless weather or geopolitics re-price risk quickly.
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