Snapshot - 19 November 2025
European gas and power firmed slightly as the first notable cold spell tightened near-term balances. Wind output fell back from late last week and gas-for-power increased, but supply cover stayed comfortable. Norwegian nominations were broadly stable and LNG schedules into North West Europe remained busy, keeping the system well supplied despite higher LDZ demand. Carbon eased on profit taking, muting power’s beta to gas. Storage withdrawals slowed and inventories remain adequate for mid-November.
Prompt and near-curve gas edged higher on colder forecasts and a softer renewables profile. UK system margins tightened during low-wind hours, with interconnectors swinging to import and CCGT burn lifting. Brief unplanned events on the Norwegian system early in the week shaved flows, but steady nominations later capped risk premia. US-origin LNG continued into UK and continental terminals, with regas flexibility allowing send-out to rise during evening peaks. Unless cold coincides with a material Norwegian derating, rallies are likely to fade.
Power tracked gas higher intraday, then eased as carbon softened and evening wind improved. Day-ahead baseload printed in the mid to high £80s/MWh at the tightest points, with peaks moving most where wind lulls met colder temperatures. December and Q1 gained modestly on the cold window, while far-dated contracts were little changed. Clean sparks narrowed slightly as UKAs eased and fuel outpaced power.
Crude held in a narrow band near the mid-$60s/bbl. Product markets stayed uneven as Russian refinery reliability and export frictions added noise to diesel and naphtha balances. EUAs traded roughly €79 to €82/t in November with UKAs at a stable discount, trimming marginal generation costs and containing the power curve. Coal calendars sat just above $100/t. Other developments included National Grid consultation on Weston Marsh substations, another drop in Russian fuel exports, a spike in Atlantic LNG freight, a new US LNG route into Ukraine, guidance that UK bills may dip then rise on networks, and commissioning milestones at Golden Pass LNG.
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