Snapshot - 18 November 2025
Gas and power firmed modestly as the first meaningful cold spell of the season lifted demand while wind output fell back. Price action remained orderly, with comfortable cover from Norwegian flows and busy LNG arrivals keeping the broader backdrop range bound. Storage withdrawals continued over the weekend but slowed, leaving EU inventories still adequate for mid November even as sensitivity to weather increases.
Prompt and near-curve gas nudged higher on colder signals and weaker renewables. UK system balance tightened in low wind hours as CCGT burn rose and interconnectors swung to import. NBP front month traded near 80 p/th and TTF in the low €31s/MWh, with dips bought once forecasts converged on a short, sharp cold trough. Norwegian nominations remain high and North West European LNG schedules busy, including another US cargo into Milford Haven, so upside is likely capped unless cold overlaps with an offshore outage.
Power followed gas higher, though softer carbon limited gains. UK wind dropped sharply versus late last week, pushing CCGT runs up and steepening the evening profile. Day-ahead baseload printed in the mid to high £80s/MWh at times, with peaks moving most where wind lulls aligned with colder temperatures. Front-month and Q1 baseload firmed, while far-curve power was little changed as UKAs eased and clean sparks narrowed slightly.
Crude stayed range bound, with Brent around the mid $60s/bbl and time spreads subdued, consistent with modest refining margins. Carbon slipped for a second session, with EUAs and UKAs both easing and trimming marginal generation costs. Coal calendars held just above $100/t. Other developments included guidance that UK retail bills may dip then rise on network costs, a surge in Atlantic LNG freight to the highest since early 2024, and Ukraine adding a new US LNG import route to bolster resilience after repeated infrastructure strikes.
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